The regions contributing most to this growth are North America, Asia, and Africa and the Middle East, where many cities do not have light rail systems and where the construction cost of metro networks is deemed too expensive, with the United States and China in particular experiencing high growth.
SCI Verkehr expects that around 1300km of new lines will open up to 2020 compared with 2014 and a further 1000km by 2024.
The replacement of ageing fleets rather than new line construction is expected to sustain growth in Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). The current market volume for new vehicles is €2.5bn per year and around €3bn for after-sales service. The European market is expected to grow by less than 2% per year, while impressive growth rates of 7-17% are expected in North America, Asia, Africa/Middle East and the CIS up to 2019.
Bombardier, Alstom and Siemens continue to lead the supply market. However, their cumulative share has fallen to 44% in 2010-14 compared with more than 60% from 2000 to 2007 as medium-sized and local companies pick up more and more orders. In particular, CRRC has secured significant market share due to orders from its domestic Chinese market, while Pesa and CAF have won notable international contracts.
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