The latest railway market study published by SCI Verkehr, Germany, clearly shows just how much the demand for local, regional, and inter-city multiple units is booming. Andreas Wolf, senior consultant with SCI Verkehr, analyses the data.

THE demand for mobility is fuelling rapid growth in the world's conurbations. This is particularly beneficial to the procurement of modern, efficient multiple units, which are operated as commuter trains to cope with the onslaught of passengers. These vehicles can achieve rapid acceleration as the drive is distributed throughout the train; this acceleration is necessary for high-frequency train services with lots of stops.

At present, operators and public institutions around the world are investing €7 billion a year in new multiple units. Emus account for 85% of the market volume and the expected growth rate of nearly 7% is considerably higher than for the total market for new vehicles. For dmus, which represent the smallest submarket for new vehicles, we currently predict growth of 1.5%. Future growth markets can be found in Brazil, Russia, India and China - the so-called Bric states - the Middle East and North America. The European market will also see further growth in the next five years.

More than 45,000 multiple units are in operation worldwide, which consist of around 160,000 cars. The average age of the worldwide multiple unit fleet is approximately 20 years. In the next five years, we expect the installed base to grow by more than 1% per year.

Emus form the majority of the fleet. More than 32,000 emus are in operation worldwide, comprising around 130,000 cars. The largest multiple unit fleets are in Japan and the Western European countries of Britain, France, Germany, and Italy, which account for about 50% of the total installed base.

Europe is therefore the largest sales region for new multiple units, accounting for around 65% of the current market volume. In the next five years, the largest market volumes in this region will be generated in France, Germany and Britain.

High-quality inter-city multiple units capable of operating at up to 200km/h play a key role for further growth in the multiple unit segment in Europe. The replacement of conventional trains by multiple units will continue in this segment. Countries such as Britain, France and Spain have practically withdrawn all locomotive-hauled trains in regional and local rail transport. This development will continue in the new European Union member states in Eastern Europe, albeit at a much slower rate, and will lead to long-term growth in this segment.

An examination of the age structure of the fleet shows high procurement of emus and dmus from 2000 onwards. More than a third of the current multiple unit installed base has been delivered in the last 10 years. On the other hand, more than 20% of the installed base is more than 30 years old and has to be replaced or refurbished in the next 10 years.

The trend towards the procurement of double-deck vehicles continues unabated. Between 10% and 15% of double-deck emus are delivered in Europe each year - and the trend is growing.

In Asia, the second most important region, we expect deliveries to increase considerably in India and China. Compared with other vehicle segments like metro vehicles and high-speed trains, procurement has so far concentrated almost entirely on Hong Kong. In the future, we also expect significant growth in the market for multiple units due to the expected construction of inter-city lines to complement the high-speed network in China. Other important international markets include Russia, Brazil and the United States.

Due to the high importance of Western Europe, Bombardier, Alstom, Stadler, and Siemens, which are based there, have the largest market shares, followed by Kawasaki and Hitachi in Japan. Hyundai Rotem, Korea, and CAF, Spain, have also gained considerable market shares. Chinese manufacturers CNR and CSR, on the other hand, are yet to play a significant role in the multiple unit segment.

With the expansion of local production sites, the proportion of exports from traditional centres of railway technology to the new growth countries is dropping continuously. In Brazil, for example, vehicle manufacturers have increased their local capacities substantially; in Russia and India, technology transfers are resulting in growing production of high-quality multiple units. We assume that this trend will continue. When it comes to procurement decisions, key factors include initial costs, reducing operating costs, energy efficiency and a high-quality maintenance concept. Many manufacturers expect to see a further opening-up of the after-sales market, although this is largely linked to new vehicle deliveries.

The result of the increasing transport demand on the one hand and the limited scope regarding the upgrade of infrastructure (such as the extension of train lengths or increased frequency) on the other hand also represent significant growth in demand for rail vehicles in the future. The most important technical trends for the procurement of new multiple units are:
• increasing capacity by introducing double-deck coaches or wide-body single-deck multiple units as well as optimised interior design
• reduced dwell time at stations by increasing performance parameters mainly through better acceleration and optimisation of boarding and alighting times
• environmentally-friendly design of the total vehicle concept with the focus on optimising energy consumption and reduction of emissions, and
• increased availability through optimised maintenance concepts.

In SCI Verkehr's multi- client study Diesel Multiple Units/Electric Multiple Units - Global Market Trends, we analyse the procurement and after-sales market around the world for local, regional, and inter-city multiple units with speeds of up to 200km/h. The results are based on an analysis of the current installed bases with regard to operation purpose, age structure, and the procurement projects and plans of operators.

The study includes a forecast of the market volume for new vehicles and after-sales services in eight world market regions and the most important national markets. The study also presents the world's most important manufacturers and their products and market shares. An annex to the study includes detailed information about global installed bases, fleet structures and vehicle manufacturer factsheets.

Europe and North America drive LRV market growth

A STUDY of the world market for light rail vehicles by SCI Verkehr predicts annual growth of 5% for a market which is currently worth €1.9 billion. The main drivers of this growth will come from cities in Europe and North America.

There are about 380 light rail systems in operation worldwide, with more than half in Europe. Germany, followed by the United States and France, currently procures the most LRVs and the next seven largest national markets for LRVs are all in Europe. About 100 systems are currently being built or upgraded with a further 100 projects at the planning stage.

The LRV market is dominated by Bombardier, Alstom and Siemens which have supplied more than 50% of the LRVs manufactured during the last five years, but competition is on the increase from companies such as Kinki Sharyo, Japan; Skoda, Czech Republic; CAF, Spain; and Stadler, Switzerland.