NIC was asked by prime minister Mr Boris Johnson in February to undertake an assessment of proposed major rail schemes to help inform the government’s Integrated Rail Plan.

The report presents a detailed analysis of how different sets of schemes currently proposed within the North and Midlands, including Northern Powerhouse Rail between Liverpool and Hull, the Midlands Engine Rail programme, and HS2 Phase 2b, might be sequenced and prioritised.

The government confirmed in November that the eastern leg of HS2 Phase 2b from Birmingham to Leeds has been split into a second parliamentary bill, separate from the western section of Phase 2b from Crewe to Manchester.  

The analysis uses an original methodology to assess how different packages of potential projects would improve connections between and productivity within towns and cities; the value schemes might create by connecting people to services concentrated in towns and cities; and their likely environmental impact.

The commission outlined a base package with an £86bn budget, based on cost estimates at the time of the 2018 National Infrastructure Assessment. The report also outlines packages that focus on developing regional and inter-city connections, with each of these split into two packages with indicative budgets of £108bn (a 25% increase) and £129bn (a 50% increase).

Each package includes:

  • HS2 phases 1 and 2a
  • the western leg of HS2 2b, as there are no viable alternatives to increase capacity into Manchester
  • at least £15bn for decarbonisation, digital signalling and ‘early wins,’ and
  • an allowance for optimism bias.

The base package also includes:

  • Transpennine Route Upgrade: this includes line speed increases and full electrification from Manchester to York and track quadrupling between Huddersfield and Dewsbury to allow fast trains to bypass stopping services
  • East Coast Main Line: this includes line speed increases from 200 to 225km/h and capacity upgrades at Welwyn viaduct, a double-track second on a four-track main line.
  • Midlands Rail Hub: line speed and capacity benefits to rail links between Birmingham, Leicester, Nottingham, Coventry, Derby, Hereford and Worcester and improved services to Wales and the southwest
  • Midland Main Line: electrification line speed increases between Derby and Sheffield and platform extensions at Belper, Dronfield and Duffield
  • Manchester - Sheffield: including line speed increases in the Peak District National Park and capacity upgrades
  • Birmingham Airport Connectivity: improved links to Birmingham International, which serve the city’s airport and Coventry from Derby and Sheffield in the north and Oxford and Reading in the south.

The first regional connection package, in line with a 25% budget increase, includes:

  • delivering major Northern Powerhouse Rail upgrades (including some new lines) on the route between Liverpool, Manchester and Leeds
  • delivering the Transpennine Route Upgrade, which includes line speed increases and full electrification from Manchester to York and track quadrupling between Huddersfield and Dewsbury to allow fast trains to bypass stopping services
  • addressing congestion between Leeds and York
  • improving links between Leeds and Bradford
  • delivering a new high-speed line from Birmingham to the East Midlands which provides direct services to East Midlands Parkway and Nottingham
  • upgrading the Midland Main Line from the East Midlands to Sheffield and Leeds
  • upgrading the East Coast Main Line between Leeds and London, which will also benefit the northeast
  • delivering line speed and capacity benefits to rail links between Birmingham, Leicester, Nottingham, Coventry, Derby, Hereford and Worcester and improved services to Wales and the southwest through the Midlands Rail Hub, and
  • improving links to Birmingham International airport and Coventry from Derby and Sheffield in the north and Oxford and Reading in the south, due to the Midlands Engine Rail programme.

The second regional connection package, which would require a 50% budget increase, includes the above projects as well as:

  • wholly delivering the new Northern Powerhouse Rail lines between Liverpool, Manchester and Leeds, which would also serve Bradford
  • increasing capacity between Leeds and Newcastle
  • upgrading the Hope Valley route from Manchester and Sheffield
  • building a new line into Leeds off the existing network north of Sheffield and a new high-speed line from Birmingham to the East Midlands, providing direct services to Nottingham
  • upgrading the Erewash Valley route between Nottingham and Sheffield, and
  • upgrading the Midland Main Line.

The first long-distance package, with a 25% budget increase, includes:

  • the full HS2 Phase 2b eastern leg
  • Transpennine Route Upgrade: electrification of sections of the Manchester - York line and some line speed increases, and
  • completing Midlands Connect schemes using the eastern leg of HS2.

The second long-distance package, with a 50% budget increase, includes the above projects as well as:

  • a wider range of upgrades across the Midlands and the North
  • a mix of new lines and upgrades between Manchester and Leeds as well as the Transpennine Route Upgrade between Manchester and York
  • upgraded connections and capacity from York to Newcastle
  • an upgrade to the Manchester - Liverpool line via Warrington Central
  • line speed and capacity enhancements to rail links between Birmingham, Leicester, Nottingham, Coventry, Derby, Hereford and Worcester and improved services to Wales and the south west through the Midlands Rail Hub, and
  • improving links to Birmingham International and Coventry from Derby and Sheffield in the north and Oxford and Reading in the south, due to the Midlands Engine Rail programme.

“Major rail schemes will be an important component in levelling up the country’s economic geography, but we should ensure public money is carefully spent where it can make the most difference,” says NIC chair, Sir John Armitt.

“The number and scale of rail schemes currently being proposed for the north and midlands mean that some form of prioritisation will be necessary, and we think there are ways of bringing forward benefits for communities and businesses while keeping options open for additional investments if the circumstances are right.

“Our independent analysis offers government various ways of targeting spending depending on the precise economic and social outcomes it wants to achieve.”

“Some of the options in this report are very concerning,” says Midlands Connect director, Ms Maria Machancoses. “Sacrificing parts of the high-speed network now would short-change millions of people across the Midlands and undermine our efforts to deliver a transport network fit for the 21st Century.

“HS2 must be delivered in its entirety, including its Eastern Leg from Birmingham to Leeds, alongside Midlands Engine Rail. To stall, scale down or delay now will cause irreparable economic damage to communities across the region - especially the East Midlands, which has suffered from a chronic underinvestment in infrastructure for decades.”